Bitcoin Price Surge Expected After 2024 US Election

2024-11-02

Bitcoin Price Surge Expected After 2024 US Election image 0

After months of tireless rallying from both presidential candidates, the Election Day is finally around the corner. As that major event draws near and the narrow odds between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing huge price fluctuations and struggling to determine its course.

Until a winner of the White House is unveiled, analysts and experts will continue to track Bitcoin price movements and share their predictions. Though credible, the sheer volume of forecasts available to investors is overwhelming, often leading to analysis paralysis rather than informed decision-making.

This article cuts through the noise by exploring Bitcoin price predictions from the most recent and reputable sources. After reading, you will understand how the world’s largest cryptocurrency would react to the election result, as well as its long-term trajectory post-election.

Bitcoin Price Updates: 24 Hours Away From The US Election

Bitcoin's price behavior on November 4th was volatile, reflecting the close race to the White House this year. It began the day below $68,000, a considerable drop from its late-October peak of over $73,500 where it nearly touched its March 14th record.

Despite this volatility, there were moments of upward momentum. Bitcoin briefly rallied, trading above $69,000 and even reaching $69,014 at one point, marking a 0.84% increase.

This uprise displayed cautious optimism in the market as investors anticipated the election result and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut on November 7th. However, the gains were short-lived, with BTC unable to maintain a weekly close above the crucial $70,000 level.

Exploring Bitcoin Price Movement In Past US Elections

Bitcoin has historically had a significant positive connection with the previous three US elections, but with diminishing returns over time. Specifically:

  • In 2012: At the time, Bitcoin, still in its infancy, was trading around $11 in the run-up to the event. The next year witnessed an exponential boom, with BTC skyrocketing by almost 12,000% to reach over $1,100 by November 2013.
  • In 2016: Four years later, Bitcoin was trading around $700 in the first week of November. While not as spectacular as the 2012-2013 surge, the price still appreciated significantly, reaching approximately $18,000 by December 2017, a gain of roughly 3,600%.
  • In 2020: The most recent US election in 2020, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, saw Bitcoin rally by 478% in the 12 months following the election. The price climbed from around $13,000 in November 2020 to a record high of over $73,000 in March 2024.

While previous elections demonstrate a clear bullish trend for Bitcoin, it is vital to recognize the declining gains with each cycle. The percentage drop between the 2012 and 2016 peaks was 70%, while that between 2016 and 2020 peaks was 87%.

If this tendency continues, a lesser decrease following the 2024 election is anticipated. Experts estimate a percentage drop of around 90%, implying a 47.8% gain. This means Bitcoin will reach $103,500 by the fourth quarter of 2025.

How Will Bitcoin React To The Election’s Result?

The volatility in the cryptocurrency market could cause BTC to rise or fall, depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins. Investors are now holding their breath, with the outcome likely to trigger significant price swings in the crypto market. Let’s forecast how Bitcoin will react to the election’s results.

What Will Happen If Trump Wins?

Trump has been vocal about his pro-crypto stance, generating considerable enthusiasm within the crypto community. The following are some of his crypto-related plans that he has proposed during the run to the White House this year:

  • Establishing a strategic national Bitcoin reserve.
  • Forming a crypto advisory board.
  • Replacing the current SEC Chair with someone more crypto-friendly.
  • Involving more deeply in the crypto space with the launch of World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto exchange.
  • Appointing a Bitcoin-advocate, JD Vance, as his presidential running mate.

These actions suggest a potential easing of regulatory pressures, creating a more conducive atmosphere for Bitcoin adoption and investment.

Thus, many analysts and experts believe that a Trump win could propel Bitcoin's price to $80,000 and $90,000, or even $125,000 by the end of the year. This bullish outlook aligns with Trump's ambition of making the US a “crypto capital” of the world and a hub for Bitcoin mining.

What Will Happen If Harris Wins?

Like Trump, Harris has expressed support for blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency industry but at a relatively lower degree. Her approach is also different, emphasizing consumer protection and regulatory frameworks with the following initiatives:

  • Highlighting the need of a balanced regulation that facilitates innovation.
  • Promoting breakthrough technologies like AI and digital assets.
  • Integrating crypto advancements into her policy agenda to protect investors.

This stance has sparked concerns among some investors who fear increased regulatory scrutiny could hinder Bitcoin's growth. Some analysts caution that a victory for Harris could see Bitcoin testing the $50,000 support level, a significant drop from its current price.

Also, should Harris become the 47th US president, the event could trigger an "instant dump" in the Bitcoin market, potentially pushing the price down to $65,000. This Bitcoin price prediction aligns with the rising Polymarket bids for a fall to that level.

Nevertheless, Harris's emphasis on regulatory clarity could ultimately foster sustainable long-term growth by providing a more secure and transparent environment for institutional involvement, potentially leading to a year-end price of $75,000.

Besides Elections: What Else Is Affecting BTC Price?

While the US election undoubtedly holds significant sway over Bitcoin's price trajectory, several other key elements contribute to its volatility and long-term prospects. The following part will walk you through these crucial factors.

  • An effective hedging tool: Amidst concerns about rising national debt and inflation, Bitcoin has emerged as an attractive hedge for investors seeking refuge from traditional market instability. Its decentralized nature and finite supply offer a sense of security, drawing interest from both retail and institutional players.
  • Regulatory clarity and Spot ETFs: The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC has injected a dose of stability and liquidity into the crypto market. This development has opened doors for institutional giants like BlackRock to offer Bitcoin exposure to traditional investors, bridging the gap between the crypto and financial worlds.
  • Key support and resistance levels: Currently, $66,200 is regarded as a crucial support level, while $73,800 represents a significant resistance point. Breaking above or dipping below these thresholds could signal significant price movements as the US election unfolds.

More about Bitcoin (BTC) Wallet

Can Bitcoin Price Reach A New ATH Post-Election?

Despite the present uncertainty and volatility surrounding the election, many experts remain bullish about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, with a new all-time high (ATH) well within reach.

Historically, November has been Bitcoin's most profitable month, delivering an average return of 46% since 2013. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could hit $104,000 before the end of the month.

Analysts at Bernstein maintain a bullish long-term outlook, retaining their price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025. They argue that the proliferation of spot Bitcoin ETFs has solidified the digital asset's place in the market, suggesting that the momentum for Bitcoin is now irreversible.

Whether fueled by Trump's pro-crypto stance or Harris' regulatory balance, Bitcoin's long-term promise remains intact, despite the inevitable short-term volatility. Experts predict that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 or more in the next few years, owing to institutional interest and its usefulness as a hedge against economic instability.

Navigating this volatile landscape requires a secure and reliable platform to manage your Bitcoin holdings. Bitget Wallet provides a complete solution with superior security measures, a user-friendly design, and easy access to various crypto services. It allows you to take control of your digital assets and capitalize on the opportunities presented by the evolving market.

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