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Politics
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Fed Decision in July?
$117M vol.
75%
No change25%
25 bps increase
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
$22.2M vol.
<1%
Yes100%
No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
$3.7M vol.
11%
August 314%
August 15
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$672.3M vol.
20%
JD Vance13%
Marco Rubio
Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?
$1.5M vol.
31%
200-21929%
220-239
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.2B vol.
19%
Gavin Newsom13%
Jon Ossoff
What will Trump say during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
$319.3K vol.
6%
Top Five / Top Ten8%
Ukraine
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
$1.5M vol.
86%
December 3185%
October 31
Next French Presidential Election
$116.4M vol.
31%
Marine Le Pen26%
Édouard Philippe
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$681.7M vol.
43%
J.D. Vance27%
Marco Rubio
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
$94.6M vol.
83%
Nicolás Maduro10%
Delcy Rodríguez
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
$1.4M vol.
28%
Somaliland14%
Syria
Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026?
$236.3K vol.
57%
40-6435%
<40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
$852.4K vol.
23%
Yes79%
No
Elon Musk # tweets July 28 - August 4, 2026?
$343.2K vol.
14%
200-21914%
180-199
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$48.8M vol.
25%
Yes77%
No
Iran leadership change by...?
$21.1M vol.
38%
June 30, 202721%
December 31
Fed Decision in September?
$4.5M vol.
56%
25 bps increase40%
No change
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
$30.2M vol.
52%
Gadi Eizenkot35%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
$18.9M vol.
16%
June 30, 20279%
December 31, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$6.2M vol.
55%
Yes46%
No
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
$2.8M vol.
31%
Yes70%
No
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
$7.5M vol.
46%
August 3127%
August 15
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
$8.4M vol.
7%
August 152%
July 31
